The Buffalo Bills have won four consecutive games against the Miami Dolphins and will try to make it five straight on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. However, the Bills opened as 1-1.5-point underdogs, and the line has since moved to +2.5 at many sportsbooks.
Miami could have secured the team’s first division title since the 2008 season with a win over the Bills in Week 18 last year, but lost 21-14.
ODDS AND TRENDS Miami opened as a slight favorite for this key early season division battle at -1. But the line has moved in favor of the Dolphins, who are now consensus 2.5-point favorites. Three of the past five matchups were decided by a field goal or less, including Miami’s last win in September 2022, 21-19.
The Dolphins are attracting more of the handle (68 percent) than the Bills (32 percent) from bettors putting money on the point spread, according to averaged data among multiple sportsbooks. More bettors are getting behind Miami to win outright, with 70 percent of the handle and 66 percent of moneyline bets on the Dolphins.
That leaves 30 percent of the money and 34 percent of moneyline bets on the Bills to win outright.
BetRivers has seen a higher percentage of money (76 percent) and tickets (70 percent) on Miami’s spread. The book’s moneyline numbers also favor the Dolphins, with 56 percent of the handle and 52 percent of tickets on Miami.
The public is hoping for a high-scoring contest with 66 percent of the handle and 75 percent of the tickets backing the Over.
Betting with the public was the way to go early in the season last year. The public went 13-3 ATS in Week 1 and had a winning record in five of the first seven weeks. Last week, the public was 5-7-1 on Sunday.
PROP PICKS –Tyreek Hill Anytime TD (-120 at DraftKings): Hill got off to a solid start last season with four touchdowns in his first three games and at least one in seven of the first eight. With Raheem Mostert out and Devon Achane nursing an injury, the likelihood Hill gets in the end zone is pretty good. He had one touchdown in two games vs. the Bills last season.
–Hill Over 6.5 Receptions (-138 at FanDuel): He had seven last week despite the offense getting off to a slow start. With the team’s top running backs out or hurting, Miami is bound to throw more, which will probably mean more targets for Hill. He had three in the Oct. 1 game vs. the Bills last season and seven in the regular-season finale.
KEY STATS Josh Allen has enjoyed a lot of success against the Dolphins, throwing at least two touchdowns in 13 consecutive meetings and rushing for at least 47 yards in four of the past five. He has thrown 36 touchdown passes against the Dolphins (since 2018), the most by any quarterback in the league against a single opponent.
The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games, while five of the past six Bills games have hit the Over for total points scored.
THE NEWS Not only has Bills quarterback Josh Allen dominated the Dolphins since getting drafted in 2018, but if MVPs were awarded based on just games against the Dolphins, Allen would have a house full of hardware.
When the Bills played host to the Dolphins in Week 4 last season, Allen completed 84 percent of his passes for 320 yards and four touchdowns. Just for good measure, he tacked on another touchdown on the ground. With the division title on the line in Week 18, Allen was 30-38 for 359 yards and two touchdowns.
Had he not thrown two interceptions, one of which led to a touchdown for Miami, the game would not have been as close as the score (21-14) would indicate.
However, the road may be a little challenging for the Bills this week. Allen no longer has a legitimate No. 1 receiver since the Bills traded Stefon Diggs to Houston during the offseason. He completed 78 percent of his passes last week for 232 yards and two touchdowns. Among his 18 completions, Allen connected with nine different receivers.
Achane rushed for 101 yards and two scores in last season’s Week 4 matchup. If he’s unable to play, the run game may still be fine. Jeff Wilson Jr. rushed for 45 yards on nine carries in Week 18 last season.
INJURY REPORT Mostert has been ruled out with a chest injury, while Achane missed practice on Monday and Tuesday with an ankle injury. His official status is questionable, along with that of WR Malik Washington, LB Jaelan Philips, CB Jalen Ramsey, and OT Liam Eichenberg. Achane is considered a game-time decision.
Buffalo Bills DE Javon Solomon is listed as doubtful (oblique). But fellow DE Dawuane Smoot has been ruled out (toe) along with CB Taron Jackson (forearm).
PREDICTION Miami’s offense can have a good day against Buffalo’s defense. The Dolphins couldn’t stop Allen last year, but they did sack him five times and intercepted him twice. Allen has thrown seven interceptions against Miami, his most to one team.
Whether this one is close will depend on whether the Dolphins can get over Allen’s past dominance. The Bills’ offense is not the powerhouse of the past few years. If Miami brings its “A” game, the Dolphins can snap their losing streak in this rivalry.
Prediction: Bills 28, Dolphins 31