Join Now! Sign In

Week 5 TNF: Bucs-Falcons Preview, Odds, Prediction

by

Falcons and Buccaneers Face Off in Crucial NFC South Showdown

The Atlanta Falcons have a golden opportunity to tie with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers atop the NFC South as they host their divisional rivals on Thursday Night Football. With both teams eyeing early-season momentum, this matchup could set the tone for the rest of their campaigns.

Falcons Eye Another Home Win

The Falcons (2-2) are gearing up for their fourth home game of the season, fresh off a thrilling 26-24 victory over the New Orleans Saints, sealed by Younghoe Koo’s 58-yard game-winning field goal. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers (3-1) have already demonstrated their road prowess, securing a 20-16 win over the Detroit Lions in Week 2. Both teams will meet again in just three weeks, making this clash even more pivotal.

The betting lines have shifted ahead of the game, with Atlanta opening as 2.5-point favorites at BetMGM. Despite 63% of spread-line money backing Tampa Bay, the line moved from 1.5 to 2.5. Similarly, the Buccaneers’ +100 moneyline has attracted 68% of bets, including a notable $15,000 wager at +102.

At DraftKings, the spread is tighter, with the Falcons favored by just 2 points. The Over/Under has ticked up from 43.5 to 44, as 63% of bettors expect the game to exceed that mark. Historically, the Falcons have struggled as favorites, failing to cover the spread in seven straight games against NFC South rivals.

Boost your winnings with these essential tips for betting NFL parlays.

Player Prop Picks

  • Bijan Robinson 25+ Receiving Yards (-175 at DraftKings): The dynamic running back has been a dual threat for Atlanta, racking up 224 rushing yards and 135 receiving yards through four games. He’s reached 25+ receiving yards in three of those outings, making this a popular prop bet.
  • Mike Evans Anytime TD (+112 at BetRivers): Evans, one of the most consistent touchdown scorers for Tampa Bay, has already reached the end zone three times this season. Backed by 3.5% of total prop bets, he’s a favorite to score again on Thursday night.

Key Storylines

  • Kirk Cousins’ Turnovers: Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins has been prone to mistakes at home, throwing at least one interception in four consecutive games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. His ball security will be crucial against Tampa Bay’s opportunistic defense.
  • Tampa Bay’s Explosive Offense: The Buccaneers rebounded from a dismal Week 3 loss to the Denver Broncos with a dominant 33-16 win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Baker Mayfield threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns, while Mike Evans delivered his best performance of the season, grabbing eight receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown. Mayfield will aim to replicate that success against Atlanta’s evolving defense.

Familiar Faces and Fresh Challenges

Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles is preparing for a revamped Atlanta squad under new head coach Raheem Morris. The Falcons are playing with a renewed sense of confidence, thanks to an influx of fresh talent, including Cousins, who Bowles faced last year when he was with Minnesota.

“They’re playing faster and with a lot more confidence,” Bowles said. “Kirk has more weapons around him now, and he’s running the offense well. It’s going to be a great challenge.”

Bowles is no stranger to Morris, having known him since their days growing up in New Jersey. Morris also has a history with the Buccaneers, serving as head coach from 2009-11 after years as a defensive assistant.

Discover how to find hidden value when betting on NFL playoff home underdogs.

Injury Updates

Injuries could play a significant role in Thursday’s outcome. Tampa Bay has ruled out key players, including All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot), right tackle Luke Goedeke (concussion), and defensive lineman Calijah Kancey (calf). Mike Evans, nursing knee and calf issues, was a limited participant in practice but is expected to play.

Atlanta’s defense may be without standout linebacker Troy Andersen (knee), who missed practice early in the week. Running back Bijan Robinson (hamstring) and offensive tackle Kaleb McGary (knee) are also nursing injuries but are expected to suit up.

Prediction

The Falcons have been inconsistent so far, alternating between wins and losses, while the Buccaneers have looked like the more complete team. Tampa Bay’s explosive offense and veteran leadership give them the edge in this matchup, despite playing on the road.

Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 20