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Week 5 MNF: Saints-Chiefs Preview, Props, Prediction

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Week 5 of the NFL season wraps up with an intriguing Monday Night Football matchup as the New Orleans Saints head to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs. The last time these two teams met was in Week 15 of the 2020 season, when the Chiefs edged out a close 32-29 victory. However, both teams have undergone major changes since then, making this clash an interesting test for both franchises.

The Saints are grappling with injuries and a shaky start to the season, while the Chiefs, despite their undefeated record, are battling their own injury concerns. With both teams facing significant hurdles, here’s everything you need to know about this Monday night matchup.

A Tale of Two Teams: Chiefs Rolling, Saints Reeling

The Kansas City Chiefs opened as an eight-point favorite, which isn’t surprising given their current form and home-field advantage. However, the line has since shifted to -5.5, reflecting some growing confidence in the Saints despite their recent struggles.

When these two teams last met, Patrick Mahomes was still playing on his rookie contract, and the Saints had Drew Brees under center with Sean Payton calling the shots. Fast forward to 2024, and New Orleans has a new head coach in Dennis Allen and a new quarterback in Derek Carr, who is looking to establish himself in the Saints’ system.

While the Chiefs continue to dominate the AFC under Mahomes, the Saints have seen more ups and downs, currently sitting at 2-2 after back-to-back losses. Carr has a 3-14 career record against the Chiefs and has struggled to find consistency when facing Kansas City’s defense. The Saints will need to overcome their offensive struggles if they want to pull off an upset.

Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Despite a recent tightening of the spread, the Chiefs remain firm favorites at home. Kansas City has continued to draw heavy betting action, with 88% of moneyline bets coming in on the Chiefs. However, sportsbooks such as BetMGM are reporting a curious trend: 63% of point spread tickets and 64% of the handle are on the Saints, suggesting there’s faith that New Orleans can keep it close.

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Key Matchup: Mahomes vs. Allen’s Defense

Mahomes and the Chiefs offense will face a familiar foe in Dennis Allen, who served as the Saints’ defensive coordinator during their last meeting in 2020. In that game, Mahomes threw for 254 yards and three touchdowns against Allen’s defense. But much has changed since then. The Chiefs are dealing with a slew of injuries, which could slow down their offensive production.

If this game were taking place a few weeks earlier—right after the Saints’ back-to-back 40-point offensive outbursts—the line likely wouldn’t have opened with such a large spread. However, injuries have caught up with both teams, and Kansas City’s home-field advantage, coupled with Mahomes’ presence, keeps them from ever being considered an underdog at Arrowhead.

Injury Report: Who’s In, Who’s Out?

Injuries will play a significant role in this game, with both teams missing key players. The Saints have been hit hard, particularly along their offensive line, which could spell trouble against Kansas City’s defense.

  • Center Erik McCoy (groin) is on IR, and his replacement, Shane Lemieux, is also out with an ankle injury.
  • Right guard Cesar Ruiz (knee) will miss his second straight game, while left guard Lucas Patrick (ankle) is listed as questionable. This leaves rookie Taliese Fuaga and Trevor Penning as the only healthy Week 1 starters on the offensive line.
  • The Saints will also be without Taysom Hill for a second consecutive game, limiting their versatility on offense.

On the Chiefs’ side, they have also been dealing with their share of injury woes, particularly among their skill position players:

  • Marquise Brown remains sidelined, while running back Isiah Pacheco is still recovering from a fibula injury sustained in Week 2.
  • Wide receiver Rashee Rice is out with a knee injury, and Kareem Hunt and Mecole Hardman have both been limited with shoulder and knee issues, respectively.

Despite these injuries, the Chiefs will still field their star quarterback Mahomes and his favorite target, Travis Kelce, who remains healthy.

Prop Picks for Monday Night Football

Here are some prop bets to consider for this matchup, based on recent performance trends and the current injury reports:

  • Travis Kelce Over/Under 5.5 Receptions (+100/-130 at FanDuel): Betting on Kelce to hit the over seems like a solid option. With key players out and Mahomes likely leaning on his most trusted weapon, Kelce is expected to be heavily involved in the passing game. He had seven catches on nine targets last week, and a similar workload is anticipated on Monday.
  • Xavier Worthy Over/Under 2.5 Rushing Yards (-120/-110): Chiefs coach Andy Reid is known for his creative play-calling, and with injuries plaguing Kansas City’s offense, Reid may rely on the speedy rookie Worthy to take a few handoffs. Worthy has already had a carry in three of four games this season, and we expect him to get at least one more in this game. With his speed, it’s likely he can gain more than 2.5 rushing yards.
  • Derek Carr vs. Kansas City: Carr has faced the Chiefs 17 times in his career, managing just three wins. His struggles have been well-documented, as he averages 242.4 passing yards and has thrown 26 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in those games.
  • Chiefs’ Offense vs. Injuries: Kansas City’s offense has been efficient, but they’ve had to adjust with several key players missing due to injuries. Expect Mahomes to rely heavily on Kelce, but the Chiefs’ ground game will be a question mark with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Pacheco both out.

Prediction

With the Saints’ depleted offensive line and the Chiefs still boasting Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, Kansas City should have the upper hand in this game. Expect a low-scoring affair, with both offenses hampered by injuries. The Saints’ defense will keep it close for a while, but ultimately, Mahomes and the Chiefs will find a way to win at home.

Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 17, Saints 7