Sean Payton returns to New Orleans on Thursday night for the first time since departing after the 2021 season, bringing his Denver Broncos to face the struggling New Orleans Saints. Payton, who coached the Saints to nine playoff appearances and a Super Bowl title during his 15-year tenure, admitted it will be a “unique” experience. Both teams come into the matchup after disappointing losses, and Payton’s Broncos are trying to re-establish momentum, while the Saints aim to end a four-game losing streak.
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Game Preview: Broncos at Saints
Broncos’ Recent Form
The Broncos (3-3) are coming off a 23-16 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers that snapped a three-game winning streak. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix is still adjusting to the NFL, and while the offense has shown flashes, Denver’s success has largely been attributed to its defense, which ranks fourth in points allowed (16 per game) and yards allowed (284.3 per game).
Saints’ Struggles
The Saints (2-4) have lost four straight games, including a 51-27 blowout by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler will make his second consecutive start in place of injured Derek Carr. Rattler led the Saints to a 27-24 halftime lead last week before they were shut out in the second half. Meanwhile, the Saints’ defense, once a strength, has fallen to last in average yards allowed (395.8 per game) and 23rd in points allowed (24.5 per game).
Odds and Betting Trends
- Spread: Broncos -2.5
- Denver is favored by 2.5 points, and the spread has shifted from 1.0, with 66% of bets and 79% of the money backing the Broncos.
- Moneyline: Broncos -145, Saints +120
- The Broncos have received 63% of the money, while the Saints have attracted 57% of the bets.
- Over/Under: 37.0 points
- The total is evenly split on bets, but 59% of the money is on the Under.
Key Matchups
Broncos’ Defense vs. Rattler’s Offense
Denver’s defense is their strongest asset, ranking among the top four in both points and yards allowed. Saints rookie QB Spencer Rattler showed promise last week but will be without key weapons Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, who are both out due to injuries. Rattler will need to rely heavily on Alvin Kamara, especially in the passing game.
Bo Nix vs. Saints’ Defense
Broncos QB Bo Nix has struggled, ranking 34th in passer rating (73.7). However, he may find success against a Saints defense that ranks last in yards allowed and is dealing with injuries. New Orleans’ once-vaunted defense has not lived up to expectations under former Payton defensive coordinator Dennis Allen.
Injury Report
Saints:
- Out: WR Chris Olave (concussion), WR Rashid Shaheed (knee), G Cesar Ruiz (knee), LB Pete Werner (hamstring)
- Doubtful: QB Derek Carr (oblique)
Broncos:
- Out: CB Pat Surtain II (concussion), OT Alex Palczewski (ankle)
Player Prop Bets
Courtland Sutton Over 3.5 Receptions (-135 at DraftKings)
Sutton has averaged 7.8 targets per game and caught four passes against the Chargers last week. With Nix still finding his footing, Sutton has become a reliable target.
Alvin Kamara Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Kamara has been heavily utilized in the passing game by Rattler, and despite a down game last week, this bet has garnered 99% of wagers on the Over.
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The Storyline: Sean Payton’s Return to New Orleans
Sean Payton will forever be a legend in New Orleans for delivering the Saints’ only Super Bowl title and shaping the franchise’s identity alongside Drew Brees. Payton’s return is the highlight of the game, but emotions aside, this game will come down to execution, particularly as the Saints struggle under his former defensive coordinator Dennis Allen.
Payton has downplayed the impact of his return, though he acknowledged the emotions involved. “There will be emotions going back there,” Payton said. “But I understand the fans probably won’t have a lot of flowers and warm fuzzies for me.”
Prediction: Broncos 23, Saints 16
The Saints are without their top two receivers and facing a strong Denver defense. Spencer Rattler will be making just his second career start, and although he has shown flashes, the Broncos’ defense may prove too difficult to overcome. Denver’s offense has struggled, but it should be able to do enough to win a low-scoring game on the road.