The College Football Playoff kicks off Thursday night as seventh-seeded Notre Dame faces sixth-seeded Penn State in the Orange Bowl in South Florida. Both storied programs are seeking to end decades-long national championship droughts—Notre Dame last claimed a title in 1988, while Penn State’s most recent championship came in 1986. The winner of this semifinal showdown will advance to face either Texas or Ohio State in the national championship game on January 20 in Atlanta.

Notre Dame’s Path to the Semifinal

Notre Dame (13-1) enters the Orange Bowl riding a 12-game winning streak after a commanding 23-10 victory over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. The Fighting Irish have relied on a suffocating defense, ranked third nationally in turnover margin at +18, and the dual-threat capabilities of quarterback Riley Leonard. Leonard has thrown for 2,383 yards and 18 touchdowns this season while adding 831 yards and 15 scores on the ground. Notre Dame’s defense is anchored by safety Xavier Watts, who has accounted for seven takeaways, including six interceptions.

Head coach Marcus Freeman has instilled a “misfit” mentality in his team, which has thrived under pressure in recent weeks. Despite a slow offensive start against Georgia, the Irish defense dominated, holding the Bulldogs to just 10 points and forcing critical turnovers. With confidence and momentum, Notre Dame will aim to build on their success against a formidable Penn State squad.

Penn State’s Strengths and Challenges

Penn State (13-2) has been equally impressive, securing a 31-14 quarterfinal victory over Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. The Nittany Lions boast a powerful rushing attack led by Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who have combined for 2,041 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns this season. Their defense, ranked 20th nationally in turnover margin (+10), is spearheaded by linebacker Abdul Carter, who has recorded 21.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks. However, Carter’s status for the Orange Bowl is uncertain due to an arm injury sustained in the Fiesta Bowl.

Under head coach James Franklin, Penn State has demonstrated discipline and resilience, traits that will be tested against a Notre Dame defense known for forcing mistakes. The Nittany Lions’ ability to establish the run and limit turnovers will be key to their success in this semifinal matchup.

Betting Trends and Insights

Notre Dame is a narrow favorite, with the consensus line favoring the Irish by 1.0 point. Bettors have heavily backed Notre Dame, with 83% of the money on their moneyline to win outright. Additionally, Notre Dame has covered the spread in 10 consecutive games, making them a popular choice among sports bettors. The total points line is set at 45.0, with 75% of the money on the under, reflecting expectations of a low-scoring defensive battle.

A popular player prop is Riley Leonard rushing for 40+ yards, a feat he has accomplished in nine of 14 games this season. Leonard’s mobility has been critical to Notre Dame’s offensive success, particularly in tight games against elite defenses.

Prediction and Final Thoughts

The Orange Bowl will likely be a close, hard-fought game, with both defenses playing a pivotal role. Notre Dame’s ability to create turnovers and Riley Leonard’s dual-threat versatility could provide the edge against a Penn State team that has relied heavily on its rushing attack. With both teams evenly matched in many areas, the game could hinge on key plays in the red zone and special teams.

Prediction: Notre Dame 26, Penn State 23.