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Sam Darnold’s Future: Vikings, Steelers, and a Clouded Quarterback Market
Sam Darnold’s resurgence with the Minnesota Vikings in 2024 was one of the NFL’s most unexpected storylines, elevating the journeyman quarterback into a legitimate starter for a playoff team. However, a disastrous finish to the season—including a meltdown in the playoffs—has left his future with Minnesota uncertain and thrown his market value into flux.
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The Rise and Fall: Darnold’s 2024 Campaign
Darnold stepped into the starting role when rookie J.J. McCarthy suffered a preseason injury, leading the Vikings to a 14-2 record and the NFC’s best offense for much of the season. With top-tier weapons like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, Darnold thrived, finishing among the league leaders in passing yards and touchdowns. This resurgence put him in the conversation for a lucrative free-agent contract, akin to Baker Mayfield’s multi-year deal.
But Darnold’s final two games—an 18-for-41 performance in a Week 18 blowout loss to Detroit and a record-tying nine-sack playoff disaster against the Rams—exposed lingering issues with pocket awareness and accuracy. Over those two games, his adjusted quarterback rating plummeted to abysmal levels, tarnishing an otherwise stellar season.
Vikings’ Dilemma: To Franchise, Sign, or Let Him Walk?
Minnesota faces a complex decision on Darnold, who is set to hit free agency after playing on a one-year, $10 million deal. The Vikings could use the franchise tag, worth an estimated $41.4 million, to retain him for another season. However, the price tag could severely limit the team’s ability to address its pressing needs on defense and the offensive line.
Alternatively, Minnesota could sign Darnold to a more team-friendly, long-term deal or let him walk away entirely. The latter would clear the path for McCarthy, their No. 10 overall pick in 2024, to take over as the starter once he’s fully recovered from a torn meniscus.
Current betting markets suggest that McCarthy (-165) is the favorite to start Week 1 for Minnesota, with Darnold at +120, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding Darnold’s role.
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Steelers and Other Potential Landing Spots
If the Vikings choose to move on, Darnold would likely attract interest from teams seeking a proven veteran quarterback. Despite his playoff struggles, Darnold’s regular-season performance could appeal to teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are favored at +500 to sign him, especially if they decide to move on from Justin Fields or Russell Wilson.
Other possible destinations include the Las Vegas Raiders (+550), who need stability at quarterback, and the New Orleans Saints (+600), whose veteran-heavy roster demands a capable leader under center. Long-shot suitors like the Jets, Seahawks, and Browns could also enter the conversation, particularly if Darnold’s market softens following his postseason struggles.
Minnesota’s Offensive Weapons and the Case for McCarthy
The Vikings’ quarterback room has the luxury of elite talent around it. Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson form arguably the NFL’s best receiving trio, complemented by a reliable run game. McCarthy was drafted to be the quarterback of the future, and at just 22 years old, his development remains a top priority.
However, McCarthy’s recovery from knee surgery introduces risk. He has yet to play an NFL snap, and the Vikings may be reluctant to thrust him into the starting role without competition. If Darnold returns, the ensuing quarterback battle promises to dominate Minnesota’s offseason narrative.
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What Lies Ahead?
Darnold’s late-season collapse has complicated what appeared to be a clear path to a hefty free-agent contract. For Minnesota, the decision to franchise, re-sign, or part ways with Darnold will significantly shape their 2025 campaign. If he stays, a quarterback battle with McCarthy looms. If he departs, teams like the Steelers and Raiders will likely jump at the chance to land a proven starter.
Regardless of how it unfolds, the next chapter of Darnold’s career—and the Vikings’ quest for sustained success—will be one of the most compelling stories to follow this offseason.
