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CFP Title Game: Ohio State-Notre Dame Preview, Props & Prediction

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Ohio State and Notre Dame Collide in Historic CFP National Championship

The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff reaches its conclusion on Monday night as No. 7 Notre Dame and No. 8 Ohio State clash for the national title in Atlanta. With storied histories and championship aspirations, both teams have made the most of their expanded playoff opportunities to set up a tantalizing showdown.

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The Buckeyes are favored by 9.0 points at most sportsbooks, reflecting their dominance in the playoff thus far. However, betting action has been split:

At BetRivers, the Buckeyes are backed by 51% of spread bets but the Fighting Irish have drawn 53% of the money.

On the moneyline, Ohio State (-400) has garnered 65% of bets, while Notre Dame (+310) remains a value-driven underdog play.

The total points line is 45.0, with Over bettors commanding the majority of the market: 76% of money at BetRivers and 74% at BetMGM.

Prop Spotlight

Will Howard Over 225.0 Passing Yards (-205): The Buckeyes quarterback has averaged over 300 passing yards per game during the playoffs, and his ability to exploit defenses has made this prop the most popular at DraftKings.

Jeremiyah Love Under 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115): Notre Dame’s star running back has been limited by injuries and will face Ohio State’s vaunted defensive line, making this a value play.

Matchup to Watch: Jeremiah Smith vs. Leonard Moore

Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, one of the nation’s most explosive wide receivers, was held to just one catch for three yards in the semifinal win over Texas. The Longhorns doubled and tripled Smith, forcing the Buckeyes to lean on other weapons like Carnell Tate and TreVeyon Henderson.

Notre Dame’s Leonard Moore, the Freshman Defensive Player of the Year, will likely draw the challenge of covering Smith. Moore’s standout play, including 10 pass breakups and two interceptions this season, anchors a defense that thrives on man coverage.

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman emphasized his team’s commitment to its identity:
“We’re going to play man coverage like we do every week.”

Smith’s ability to adjust and thrive against Notre Dame’s aggressive secondary will be critical for the Buckeyes’ offense.

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Key Stats

Ohio State Defense: Leads the nation in scoring defense (12.2 PPG) and total defense (251.1 yards per game).

Notre Dame Turnover Margin: Fifth in FBS with 19 interceptions this season.

Riley Leonard’s Dual Threat: The Fighting Irish quarterback has contributed 866 rushing yards this season, complementing his efficient passing.

Injury Report

Notre Dame: Left tackle Anthonie Knapp (high-ankle sprain) is out, leaving the Irish vulnerable in the trenches against Ohio State’s imposing defensive line.

Ohio State: Cornerback Denzel Burke (upper-body injury) is expected to play, fortifying the Buckeyes’ secondary.

Prediction

The Buckeyes’ defensive line is the X-factor. Notre Dame will struggle to establish the run or protect Riley Leonard without Knapp, forcing them to rely heavily on Leonard’s playmaking ability. While the Fighting Irish’s defense will keep the game close early, Ohio State’s balanced attack and dominance in the trenches should prove decisive.

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Final Score: Ohio State 27, Notre Dame 19

The Buckeyes’ win would mark their first national championship in a decade, solidifying their place atop the college football world in the new 12-team CFP era.