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Best American Football Betting Strategies
Betting on American football, particularly the NFL, is one of the most challenging markets in sports betting. With sharp odds and a highly competitive landscape, consistently making a profit can seem difficult. However, by following some tried and tested strategies, you can enhance your chances of success and start making more informed wagers.
In this article, we’ll walk you through five essential football betting strategies that will help you get the most out of your NFL betting experience. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or new to the game, these tips will help you focus on the right things and avoid common pitfalls.
The Challenge of NFL Betting
There’s no question that the NFL offers one of the toughest betting markets. Sportsbooks invest heavily in setting accurate lines, and the sheer popularity of the league means the public betting action can influence odds. But, by approaching NFL betting with a clear plan, disciplined bankroll management, and a keen understanding of value, you can beat the lines on any given Sunday.
The goal is simple: hit around 53% of your bets with -110 odds to make a long-term profit. Let’s dive into the strategies that will help you achieve that goal.
#1 Betting Strategy: Have Proper Money Management
The foundation of successful sports betting is proper money management. Before placing any bets, you need to set up a separate betting bankroll. Your bankroll should be money you can afford to lose, separate from your personal finances. This discipline allows you to weather any losing streaks without it affecting your day-to-day life.
Staking Systems
There are several staking systems you can use to manage your bankroll effectively:
- Flat Staking: Betting the same amount on each game, regardless of how confident you feel. This method helps protect your bankroll by avoiding high-risk wagers.
- Unit Betting: Similar to flat staking, but here, you divide your bankroll into units. A unit is a small percentage (usually 1-2%) of your total bankroll, allowing you to scale your bets as your bankroll grows.
- Kelly Criterion: This strategy helps you calculate the optimal bet size based on the value you believe exists in a particular bet. It’s more advanced but can maximize your profits while minimizing risks.
Avoid negative progression systems, such as the Martingale, as these methods can quickly deplete your bankroll and lead to significant losses.
#2 Betting Strategy: Be Smart, Not Emotional
One of the biggest mistakes bettors make is betting with their emotions. Whether you’re a fan of a particular team or you’ve just come off a winning (or losing) streak, it’s important to keep your emotions in check.
Betting on your favorite team just because you support them can lead to poor decision-making. Similarly, chasing losses or increasing your bets after a win can result in unnecessary risks. Instead, stay objective, analyze each game independently, and only bet when you see genuine value.
#3 Betting Strategy: Line Shopping
If you’re serious about making a profit from NFL betting, you need to open accounts at multiple sportsbooks. Having access to more than one sportsbook allows you to shop for the best lines. Even a small difference in odds can significantly impact your long-term profitability.
Example:
- Sportsbook A offers a team at -3.5, while Sportsbook B offers the same team at -3. If you’re betting on the favorite, the -3 line is more favorable because it offers a better chance to push if the team wins by exactly 3 points.
By line shopping, you can consistently ensure that you’re getting the best odds and maximizing your potential returns.
#4 Betting Strategy: Betting on Underdogs
Betting on underdogs is one of the smartest strategies, especially in the NFL. Sportsbooks make significant profits from casual bettors who prefer betting on favorites. However, savvy bettors know that underdogs often offer better value, particularly in certain scenarios.
- Road Underdogs: Statistics show that road underdogs, particularly double-digit underdogs, often cover the spread. Public perception tends to inflate the lines on favorites, making the underdog bets more appealing.
- Low-Scoring Games: In games with lower total points, underdogs have a higher chance of covering the spread. When points are at a premium, every point becomes more valuable for the underdog.
By identifying situations where the public heavily backs the favorite, you can find profitable opportunities to bet on the underdog.
#5 Betting Strategy: Explore Live Betting Markets
Live betting is one of the most exciting and potentially profitable forms of sports betting. It allows you to place bets after the game has started, letting you capitalize on real-time information. Watching the game live gives you valuable insights that may not have been apparent before kickoff.
For example:
- A key player (like the quarterback) gets injured during the game.
- Weather conditions deteriorate, affecting the passing game or field conditions.
These are factors that can dramatically shift the outcome of a game. If you can spot these changes and act quickly, you can find favorable odds in the live betting market.
Live betting requires fast reactions, a keen understanding of the game, and the ability to spot value in rapidly changing odds. But for those who are quick and knowledgeable, it offers great profit potential.
Key Tips for American Football Betting Success
Rather than a standard FAQ, here are key tips that every bettor should follow to improve their success in American football betting:
- Focus on Value, Not Favorites: Don’t fall into the trap of always betting on the favorite. Look for value in the odds. Often, the underdog or a less obvious market offers the best value.
- Track Your Bets: Keep detailed records of all your bets. This allows you to review your strategy, analyze your wins and losses, and make informed adjustments.
- Don’t Chase Losses: If you hit a losing streak, don’t increase your bets to recover your losses. Stick to your staking plan and stay disciplined.
- Shop for the Best Lines: Always compare odds across different sportsbooks before placing your bet. A small difference in the point spread or moneyline can have a big impact on your bottom line.
- Keep Learning: The sports betting landscape is constantly evolving. Stay up to date with new strategies, trends, and developments in American football to stay ahead of the game.
- Take Advantage of Live Betting: Use the information gained from watching games live to capitalize on in-game betting opportunities. This gives you the edge over static pre-game markets.
Conclusion
American football betting, particularly the NFL, can be challenging, but with the right strategies, it’s possible to make consistent profits. By managing your bankroll effectively, staying objective, shopping for the best lines, and embracing live betting, you can gain an edge over the sportsbooks.
Remember, betting is a long-term game that requires discipline and patience. Stick to these proven strategies, and you’ll be on your way to success.
