These are your NFL postseason betting tips.
Key Points
– There are a number of NFL postseason betting tips that bettors can use to their advantage.
– A handful of NFL playoff trends can be used to help bettors through the postseason.
NFL Postseason Betting Tips
Whether you’re new to betting or simply looking for fresh strategies to gain a competitive edge in January, we are here to help you with these NFL postseason betting tips.
There are suggestions for novice bettors, advice on how to find postseason advantages, and more for any level of sports bettor.
With the NFL postseason looming on the horizon, gear up, read on, and learn how to have a successful NFL playoffs.
Avoid Overreaction
NFL odds are frequently very tight at this time of year. There are some situations where public opinion can still add some value. One is the impressive postseason blowout. A team enters its next game and the public generally overreacts.
The public jumps on the bandwagon, but they would be wise to sit for this history lesson. Since 1980, teams that have scored 40 points or more in a playoff game are 6-25-1 ATS in their next game. That’s worse than a 20 percent cover rate. Don’t overreact. Add that to your NFL postseason betting tips.
MUST READ: THE ADVANTAGES OF USING ONLINE BETTING SITES
NFL Postseason Betting Tips – Don’t Bet Every Game
Do not feel obligated to wager on every game. You don’t wager on each game each week of the regular season. You concentrate on the percentage of games that provide value. The postseason follows the same rule.
If you want to bet every playoff game, by all means do so. Just remember that your likelihood of maximizing profits is going to be pretty low.
It’s All About Matchups
Regular-season team records shouldn’t be given too much weight. Since 2000, four teams have won the Super Bowl as a wild card team. Analyzing matchups and momentum is much more crucial. This is especially true for teams coming off the bye. Prior to last season’s NFL playoffs, there were eight outright road victories in the Divisional Round over the past ten years.
Don’t be afraid to place a moneyline wager with appealing odds. Often, bettors can find value in betting NFL playoff home underdogs, for example.
NFL Playoff Betting Tips – Understanding the Marketplace
If you don’t already, you should understand the betting marketplace. Sportsbooks are in the business of making money. Oddsmakers typically aim to achieve a balance of money on both sides of a bet. This way, the book avoids a big liability on either outcome and makes money off of the juice.
Playoff lines will be set and adjusted according to the huge number of recreational bettors that enter the market during the playoffs. These bettors love to wager on favorites and are swayed by recency bias.
The other thing NFL playoff bettors should understand are the main trends involved. Learn these trends to find value, and then assess which games to bet. There are some great trends that can serve as NFL playoff betting tips.
NFL Playoff Trends
Quarterbacks playing in the postseason for the first time typically do not do well. Since 2002, quarterbacks making their postseason debuts against quarterbacks who have made at least one prior postseason start have gone 14-30 straight up and 12-31-1 ATS.
Another interesting trend involves playoff teams that played each other during the regular season. Don’t overestimate the outcome of the regular season meeting when betting the spread in the postseason.
In general, underdogs make better bets. Since 2003, postseason underdogs have gone 95-76-4 ATS while regular-season underdogs have gone 2121-2086-131 ATS. Not only has betting on underdogs on the moneyline been more profitable in the playoffs compared to the regular season, it has also been more profitable than betting the point spread.
Since 2003, moneyline underdogs in the regular season are 1428-2895-9 with a -3.2% ROI, while underdogs in the postseason are 64-111-0 with a +11.2% ROI.
Outdoor games typically go Under compared to indoor games. The over has a 29-13 record in postseason games played indoors since 2003. Games with an above average total (45.5 or higher), are 24-8 to the Over and have produced the majority of the profits.
The under, on the other hand, has performed much better in outdoor postseason games over that time period. The Under is 73-56-2. Most of the profits come in the Wild Card Round where the Under is 34-13.
NFL Postseason Betting Tips – Bet Props
NFL playoff bettors should be betting props in the postseason. Sportsbooks increase the number and variety of props they offer for the playoffs, and many of them have value. Don’t overdo it by placing numerous max bets on props while placing only a few small bets on the sides and totals. If you do, your prop betting limits will probably be lowered fairly quickly.
As the season goes on, Vegas’ predictions improve, and their sides and totals are remarkably accurate. If you’ve been following a particular team or division all season, you probably have a good idea of the kinds of teams and circumstances where a player can perform above expectations. You might consider using handicapper picks to win more NFL props.
Props continue to provide excellent value during the playoffs, whether it’s betting an Under on a running back’s total yards against a tough run defense or an Over on a quarterback passing yards at home against a weak pass defense.
Prop Tips
The biggest advantage in betting on sides, totals, or moneylines is being able to accurately weigh all of the variables that affect a line to determine which side offers more value. Generally speaking, a bettor should have an idea of what the “true” line should be based on the matchup.
Bettors can then examine some of the aforementioned postseason trends to see if any adjustments need to be made. For example, remember that rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle in their first playoff game.
Finally, consider public betting, money percentages, and line movement to double-check your prediction. When betting on props, be aware that books don’t put as much effort into setting the lines. They get much less action on props than sides and totals. They use season-long medians without much adjustment for recent usage trends or matchups.
Because the lines don’t fully account for a team’s best players seeing higher snap counts in the postseason, one thing bettors should notice is that Overs are marginally more profitable in postseason games.
One of your NFL postseason betting tips should be to be a little more aggressive on players that are likely to see more volume and just play better in the postseason.
