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4 Nations Face-Off: Canada-U.S. Preview, Props & Prediction

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Championship Showdown

A highly anticipated rematch between the United States and Canada will decide the first-ever 4 Nations Face-Off champion on Thursday night at TD Garden in Boston. The Americans claimed the round-robin contest 3-1, but Canada’s roster has regrouped and reloaded for a winner-take-all tilt in front of what’s expected to be a massive TV audience.

  • Spread: U.S. favored by 1.5 goals
  • Moneyline: Both teams at -110; 52% of the money on the U.S., 48% on Canada
  • Total Goals (5.5): 70% of bets are on the Over; 61% of the money also on the Over

“Canada winning would be a good outcome for the sportsbook,” BetMGM senior trading manager Christian Cipollini said, noting that books expect record handle for this USA-Canada final.

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Prop Picks

  • Over 1.5 Goals in the 1st Period (-102 at BetMGM)
    Bettors have hammered this line despite the 3-1 final in the first meeting. Canada’s first three games have seen an average of 6.3 total goals.
  • Connor McDavid Anytime Goalscorer (+210)
    McDavid’s impressive breakaway goal was Canada’s lone highlight in the round-robin matchup. He’s the most popular pick to score again.

Injury Report

  • USA
    • Charlie McAvoy (shoulder infection): Out
    • Quinn Hughes (oblique): Practiced in Vancouver but remains ineligible unless another American defenseman is injured.
    • Brady Tkachuk (maintenance): Missed practice Wednesday, but coach Mike Sullivan expects him to play.
    • Auston Matthews & Matthew Tkachuk: Both sat out Monday’s 2-1 loss to Sweden, but they’re slated to return for the final.
  • Canada
    • Cale Makar (illness): Returned in the last round-robin game and is ready for the title showdown.
    • No other major injury concerns on a roster featuring 15 Stanley Cup-winning players, including Sidney Crosby.

The News

Whether or not Quinn Hughes is available, the U.S. defense will have to contain Canada’s elite speed. Meanwhile, Canada hopes to exploit openings created by McAvoy’s absence on the American blue line.

  • USA’s Key to Success: Slow down Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon’s transition game, deny them time and space through the neutral zone.
  • Canada’s Focus: Rely on experience and chemistry up front, while leaning on top-tier goaltending and Makar’s creativity on the back end.

They Said It

  • U.S. Head Coach Mike Sullivan: “It was a very competitive game the first time, and I expect this one to be every bit as competitive, if not more. I feel like I’ve got the best seat in the house behind the bench.”
  • Canada Head Coach Jon Cooper: “It’s a big rivalry game. The passion runs deep for both sides, but I know our guys will be ready. We’ve built for this moment.”
  • Team Canada Captain Sidney Crosby: “We know what we’re up against. We have enough guys who’ve won big games before. We just have to focus on what we can do and play our best game of the tournament.”
  • Team USA Defenseman Jaccob Slavin: “Don’t give ’em time and space. Stay above McDavid and MacKinnon. That’s what you love as a defenseman—trying to stop the best in the world.”
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Prediction

Both sides have tremendous firepower and strong goaltending, but Canada’s forward depth and the likely absence of Quinn Hughes give them a slight edge. Expect a spirited, tightly contested matchup befitting these rivals on the biggest stage.
Canada 3, United States 2