Power Conferences and Top Seeds Control the Bracket

Through the first two rounds of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, power conference dominance has defined the bracket — and it’s creating headaches for sportsbooks. With top seeds mostly advancing and upsets in short supply, bettors have cashed in heavily on favorites, particularly through moneyline parlays.

The SEC leads the way with a tournament-record seven teams in the Sweet 16. The Big Ten and Big 12 each have four representatives, while Duke stands as the last team standing from the ACC. Notably, all four No. 1 seeds — Duke, Florida, Houston, and Auburn — are still alive. That’s a rarity and a major reason sportsbooks are on edge entering the second weekend.

The lone exception to chalk so far is No. 10 seed Arkansas, the surprise Cinderella of the tournament and the only team seeded higher than sixth to reach the Sweet 16.

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Duke Leading Betting Markets as Title Favorite

Duke, now favored at +210 at DraftKings, has drawn massive betting interest. The Blue Devils are responsible for 20 percent of all championship bets and 21 percent of total money wagered. Florida (+350), Houston (+500), and Auburn (+500) follow, with Tennessee (+1700) the only other team with shorter odds than +2000.

St. John’s, which was eliminated by Arkansas, still ranks fifth in betting interest with 5 percent of the money — a clear sign of early public belief that didn’t pan out.

BetMGM’s Big Liabilities: Duke and Michigan State

At BetMGM, the story is similar. Duke remains the title favorite at +225 and has become the sportsbook’s biggest liability. The Blue Devils account for 13.2 percent of all tickets and a staggering 38.3 percent of total money. Duke originally opened at +1100, and BetMGM took a $500,000 wager on them at +350, in addition to a $100,000 bet on Florida and a $50,000 bet on Houston.

Michigan State has emerged as another risky team for the book. The Spartans are the No. 2 seed in the South and face No. 6 Ole Miss in the Sweet 16. Despite longer odds at +2000, they have drawn 7.7 percent of all bets and represent BetMGM’s second-largest liability.

Books Rooting for Upsets to Break Betting Momentum

With the public backing favorites and parlays hitting frequently, oddsmakers are hoping for chaos in the Sweet 16 and beyond. Florida’s narrow win over UConn provided one of the few bright spots for sportsbooks so far. According to BetMGM’s Michael Ranftle, the Huskies covering the spread was their best result from the opening rounds.

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The pressure is now on for an upset or two to shake things up. Otherwise, the wave of public wins — especially those tied to Duke’s title run — could continue to hammer sportsbooks as the tournament narrows.