The NFL’s slate of Thanksgiving Day games kicks off with an NFC North battle between the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions at 12:30 ET on Thursday.
For the Lions, it’s an opportunity to improve to 11-1 and stay atop the NFC standings. For the Bears (4-7), it represents a critical game to just stay in the conversation for a wild-card spot.
ODDS & TRENDS The Lions are consensus 9.5-point favorites — and popular ones at that. They have been backed by 71 percent of the spread-line money at BetRivers, while the Lions’ -590 moneyline to win the game outright has been backed by 91 percent of the money.
Of the three Thanksgiving Day games, Detroit’s moneyline has been the most wagered-on play, followed closely by the Lions’ spread line.
DraftKings reported the Lions’ to have drawn the most total moneyline bets and money among Week 13 games, while they have also been backed by the most Super Bowl winner bets since Week 12.
The Over/Under for Thursday’s game is at 48.0 at BetRivers, where the Over has been supported by 86 percent of the money and 83 percent of all bets.
PROP PICKS –Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs 70+ Rushing Yards (-140 at DraftKings): Gibbs is coming off a 90-yard game against the Colts when he logged a season-high 21 carries. With David Montgomery nursing a sore shoulder, a bigger workload could again fall to Gibbs to attack a Bears run defense allowing an average of 129.7 yards per game on the ground.
–Bears RB Roschon Johnson Anytime TD (+225 at BetRivers): What inconsistent work Johnson gets in Chicago’s backfield often comes near the goal line. He scored one a one-yard run last week for his sixth rushing touchdown of the season. That includes reaching the end zone in consecutive games.
THE NEWS Riding a nine-game winning streak, their longest since a 10-game streak during their first season in Detroit in 1934, the Lions are burdened by losses in their traditional Thanksgiving Day game the past seven seasons. Three of the defeats are courtesy of Chicago.
The Bears and Lions get together for the 20th time on Thanksgiving — the Bears have 11 wins — this week in the first of two meetings between the teams in a 25-day span. Detroit goes to Soldier Field on Dec. 22.
“I think there’s two things,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said of the Thanksgiving losing streak. “No. 1 — Get a W. And it’s a division win that’s why this huge. No. 2 is because the players are going to get a couple of days off. So, they have family, friends in, it’d be nice to feel good about it when you’re with everybody because it’s just not real fun. It’s not real fun to be around.”
Detroit owns the best record in the NFC but the Lions aren’t even assured of a division title. Minnesota sits one game behind them and Green Bay is two games back. The Bears sit in last place and would likely need to run the table to have any chance of making the playoffs.
The Lions have been dominant in all phases and haven’t allowed a touchdown in the past 10 consecutive quarters.
Detroit’s offense ranks first in points per game (32.7) and second in total yardage (394.3) The Lions defense has not given up a touchdown in the last 10 quarters.
The Bears are saddled with a five-game losing streak and Chicago’s defense has been destroyed for nearly 2,000 total yards in the past four games.
The Bears failed to reach the 20-point mark four times in five outings since they last won a game. In their latest defeat, rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and the offense perked up but they lost to Minnesota in overtime, 30-27.
“We have to play complementary football for us to be able to win these games,” coach Matt Eberflus said. “The games we have won, we have done that. The games we have been close we’ve missed the mark a little bit. Over the course of the year, it’s been one side or the other, this side or that side. In this league you have to be good on all sides to win. That’s what we are searching for.”
Williams threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. The wide receiver trio of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Romeo Odunze combined for 21 receptions and two touchdowns while tight end Cole Kmet caught seven passes.
INJURY REPORT The Lions put two defensive backs on injured reserve in the past week and top cornerback Carlton Davis isn’t expected to play due to knee and thumb injuries.
Detroit offensive tackle Taylor Decker (knee) and top returner Kalif Raymond (foot) are also expected to miss the game, though Campbell expressed optimism that running back David Montgomery (shoulder), formerly of the Bears, would play. Bears safety Elijah Hicks was listed as a DNP for Tuesday’s walkthrough.
KEY STAT Lions rookie placekicker Jake Bates has made all 16 of his field-goal attempts, including four from 50-plus yards over the past three games.
THEY SAID IT “What I’ve been impressed with is just how he has grown. He has grown every game but these last two I really feel like he’s taken off and what they’re doing with him has been really good for him and he just looks very composed. He doesn’t get frazzled, plays pretty fast, and he’s an accurate passer, big arm, and he’s got some guys that can get open for him.” –Campbell on Williams
PREDICTION The Lions have been putting their foot on the gas early of late, and refusing to back down. They’ve won their past two games by a combined 76-12 and have put up at least 42 points three times this season. The Bears’ defense will pose a stiffer test than most, but Chicago’s offense isn’t ready to keep pace in a track meet. –Lions 30, Bears 20