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Low-Scoring Showdowns: Week 5 NFL Matchups Where Punts Might Outshine Points
If there were ever a time to bet on punts over touchdowns, Week 5 of the NFL could be the perfect opportunity. Two matchups, in particular, have sportsbooks bracing for a defensive slugfest, with bettors flocking to the “under” on total points.
AFC East rivals, the Miami Dolphins (1-3) and the New England Patriots (1-3), are set to square off in Foxborough on Sunday. Oddsmakers have set the over/under at a remarkably low 35.5 points—tied for the lowest total this season alongside the Raiders-Broncos game. The expectation for scoring in these matchups is as low as it gets.
Offensive Struggles for the Dolphins and Patriots
After finishing second in the league last season with an impressive 29.2 points per game, few expected Miami’s offense to sputter this dramatically. But so far in 2024, Miami’s high-powered attack has been brought to a standstill. Injuries at quarterback have been a major factor, with Tua Tagovailoa (concussion), Skylar Thompson (ribs), and backup Tyler Huntley (who managed just 96 passing yards in Monday’s loss to Tennessee) all struggling to lead the team effectively. As a result, head coach Mike McDaniel finds himself searching for answers as the Dolphins rank dead last in NFL scoring.
Miami’s dismal offensive performance has carried over to their betting results. The Dolphins are the only team in the league with an 0-4 record against the spread (ATS) this season, and the “over” has hit in just one of their four games, missing the mark by an average of 7.6 points.
On the other side, the New England Patriots haven’t fared much better. Ranking just one spot above Miami at 31st in scoring, the Patriots have managed only 52 total points across four games—just seven more than the Dolphins. In the past two weeks, they’ve been outscored by the 49ers and Jets, putting up a meager 16 total points and only one touchdown in their last eight quarters of play.
Stay ahead of the game with expert NFL Week 5 picks and the latest betting line shifts.
Bettors Lean Heavy on the Under
With both offenses floundering, it’s no surprise that the public is betting heavily on the under in this matchup. As of Wednesday morning, BetMGM reported that 75% of the total bets and a staggering 82% of the money was on the under of 35.5 points for Patriots-Dolphins.
The other low-total game, Raiders-Broncos, has seen more action on the over, but the general sentiment is that both games could be defensive battles.
Special Teams Take Center Stage
Sunday’s contest between the Patriots and Dolphins might be more about field position than offensive firepower. New England punter Bryce Baringer has been a standout, averaging 51.7 yards per punt and pinning opponents inside their own 20-yard line 13 times this season. Meanwhile, Miami’s punter Jake Bailey is averaging 47.6 yards per punt with only one touchback, ensuring his kicks are placing opponents in difficult field positions.
Both teams are relying heavily on their special teams, and with touchdowns at a premium, this game could become a showcase of the punters’ skills. Baringer has downed at least three punts inside the 20 in each of the Patriots’ four games this season, potentially giving Miami a long field to cover on multiple drives.
Punter Appreciation Day?
With both offenses sputtering and two top-tier punters set to play key roles, Sunday’s Patriots-Dolphins game may not be the high-scoring affair some fans expect from an NFL contest. Instead, it sets up as a defensive grinder where special teams and punting are likely to take center stage. For bettors eyeing the under, this game could be a prime opportunity to cash in.