Padres-Dodgers: Game 5 Preview, Props & Prediction

Padres vs. Dodgers: A Winner-Takes-All Showdown in Game 5

The heated National League Division Series between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers culminates in a do-or-die Game 5 on Friday night in L.A. Both teams have everything on the line, and the stakes couldn’t be higher as they battle for a spot in the NLCS.

Odds and Trends

The Dodgers enter Game 5 as 1.5-run favorites at home. However, despite their favored status, 62 percent of spread-line money at BetRivers has backed the Padres. Meanwhile, Los Angeles’ -143 moneyline has attracted 76 percent of the money, reflecting strong confidence in their ability to win.

The Over/Under line is set at 7.5 total runs, with 64 percent of the money going toward the Over—anticipating another high-scoring affair in what has been a thrilling series.

Key Prop Pick

Shohei Ohtani or Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+120 at DraftKings)
This prop bet has been one of the most popular, with bettors backing either Ohtani or Tatis to go deep at least once. Ohtani’s only homer in the series came in Game 1, while Tatis has hit a home run in both Games 2 and 3, meaning one of the two sluggers has homered in every game but one. Given the power these stars bring, it’s no surprise this bet has drawn significant action.

Matchup Spotlight

The Padres will send their Game 2 ace, Yu Darvish, to the mound, while the Dodgers counter with their Game 1 starter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, making for a historic showdown as the first-ever postseason game featuring two Japanese-born starting pitchers.

Darvish was dominant in his previous outing, giving up just one run over seven innings in a commanding 10-2 Padres win. He kept the Dodgers’ potent lineup off balance, including striking out Ohtani twice in an 0-for-4 night. This performance has given the Padres a surge of confidence heading into the deciding game.

“I’m fully confident because he’s already proven himself over the years,” Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. said. “He’s been doing it for 18 years, and I trust him to lead us through Game 5.”

Meanwhile, Yamamoto will look to rebound from a rough Game 1, where he allowed five earned runs in just three innings. Despite his early struggles, the Dodgers managed to rally and win the game 7-5, but Yamamoto will need a sharper performance to keep his team’s World Series hopes alive.

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Dodgers’ Offensive Surge

The Dodgers’ offense exploded in Game 4, with Mookie Betts, Will Smith, and Gavin Lux all hitting home runs to power a 9-2 victory and force Game 5. Betts, in particular, has found his rhythm after a concerning postseason slump, hitting home runs in the first inning of both Games 3 and 4.

“All I’ve been doing is hitting, just working through it,” Betts said. “I’m not trying to win the game by myself. We’ve got plenty of guys who can do that. I just want to do my part for the team.”

Betts’ resurgence has been key to the Dodgers’ recent success, and with his momentum, the Dodgers will look to strike early again.

Injury Update

Los Angeles is dealing with several key injuries heading into the pivotal game. Freddie Freeman, who sat out Game 4 with a right ankle injury, is expected to return to the lineup on Friday, according to manager Dave Roberts. However, the outlook is less positive for shortstop Miguel Rojas, who strained his adductor in Game 4 and is unlikely to start.

Roberts hinted that Tommy Edman will fill in at shortstop, but the plan for center field remains unclear, leaving some uncertainty in the Dodgers’ defensive lineup.

Stat to Know

The Dodgers’ 52 home wins during the regular season were the second-most in MLB, making Dodger Stadium a formidable battleground. However, the Padres led the National League with 48 road victories, proving they can thrive in hostile environments.

What’s Next

The winner of Game 5 will face the New York Mets in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series on Sunday, with home-field advantage on the line.

Prediction

The energy at Dodger Stadium will be electric, and the Dodgers, backed by their explosive lineup, should find a way to get to Darvish early. With a packed house behind them and the momentum of Game 4, expect Los Angeles to capitalize on every opportunity.

Prediction: Dodgers 8, Padres 5