NFL Week 16 Player Prop Analysis
With 12 games on Sunday, Week 16 presents a robust slate of NFL action and numerous player prop opportunities. Here’s a deeper dive into several notable matchups and props worth considering.
Eagles vs. Commanders
Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Prop Analysis
O/U 191.5 Passing Yards at -113/-113
Hurts has been averaging close to 200 passing yards per game. While the Washington defense has been solid, holding teams to under 190 yards on average, it has been more vulnerable recently, surrendering 209 passing yards per game over the last three weeks. Hurts’ previous performance against Washington (221 yards) suggests he can eclipse this mark, especially with a balanced attack featuring Saquon Barkley back in the fold.
Recommendation: Take the OVER.
Giants vs. Falcons
Michael Penix Jr. Passing Yards Prop Analysis
O/U 228.5 Passing Yards at -115/-115
The Falcons are expected to lean heavily on their rushing attack, limiting Penix’s opportunities to rack up significant yardage. With Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier likely to carry the load, the rookie quarterback may not be asked to throw much.
Recommendation: Take the UNDER.
Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop Analysis
O/U 36.5 Rushing Yards at -110/-110
Allgeier should see increased touches in a game plan designed to control the clock and take pressure off Penix. With the Giants allowing an average of 4.9 yards per carry, Allgeier has a strong chance to exceed this modest total, especially with an increased workload.
Recommendation: Take the OVER.
Lions vs. Bears
Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop Analysis
O/U 41.5 Receiving Yards at -115/-115
With David Montgomery sidelined, the Lions may turn to LaPorta as a reliable option to complement Jahmyr Gibbs. The tight end has seen an increase in targets recently and should continue to play a pivotal role in Detroit’s offense.
Recommendation: Take the OVER.
Browns vs. Bengals
Chase Brown Rushing Props Analysis
O/U 74.5 Rushing Yards at -110/-110
O/U 17.5 Rushing Attempts at -130/+100
The Bengals will likely lean on Brown to establish the ground game, especially against a Browns defense that has struggled to contain opposing rushing attacks in recent weeks. Given the favorable matchup and a desire to control the clock with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center for Cleveland, Brown is positioned for a productive day.
Recommendation: Take the OVER on both.
Jerry Jeudy Receiving Props Analysis
O/U 62.5 Receiving Yards at -110/-110
O/U 5.5 Receptions at +125/-165
Jeudy’s production may be hindered by the Browns’ reliance on rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who has struggled with accuracy. While Jeudy is likely to see plenty of short, quick passes to compensate for DTR’s limitations, the yardage total may be difficult to achieve.
Recommendation: Take the UNDER for yardage but the OVER for receptions.
Additional Insights
With a mix of dynamic matchups and teams relying on backups or young players, Week 16 offers ample opportunities for bettors to capitalize on player prop markets. Focus on game flow and team tendencies, particularly for rushing and passing workloads, to maximize value. Best of luck!
