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Week 14 MNF: Cowboys-Bengals Preview, Prop and Prediction

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Bengals vs. Cowboys Week 14 Preview: Offensive Fireworks Expected

A Week 14 clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys features two underwhelming teams struggling to stay relevant in the playoff hunt. With playoff chances dwindling (Cincinnati at 2% and Dallas at 4% per NFL.com’s playoff predictor), this game is shaping up to be an offensive showcase, with a total of 49.5 points set by oddsmakers. Here’s a breakdown of why the Bengals are expected to set the tone early and why both offenses could shine under the primetime spotlight.

Bengals Riding Joe Burrow’s Elite Play

Joe Burrow has been the Bengals’ shining star, producing at an elite level despite the team’s misfortunes. His league-leading 30 touchdown passes and second-ranked Total QBR (74.2) highlight his importance to Cincinnati’s offensive success.

  • Luck Factor: The Bengals have a poor “luck factor” score of -2.4 (per TeamRankings), suggesting that a few breaks could have drastically improved their record.
  • Tee Higgins Returns: After missing five games, star wideout Tee Higgins is back, adding depth to an already explosive offense featuring Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd.

The Bengals’ reliance on Burrow is evident with their 64.3% pass-play rate, the fourth highest in the league. Facing a Cowboys defense allowing a league-worst 76.9% touchdown rate in the red zone, Burrow is poised for another big night.

Cowboys’ Defensive Struggles

While Dallas has managed to win its last two games, its defense has struggled, particularly in crucial situations:

  • Red Zone Defense: The Cowboys rank last, giving up touchdowns on nearly 77% of opponents’ red-zone trips.
  • First-Half Woes: Dallas allows an average of 20.7 first-half points to visiting teams, a troubling stat against a Bengals team capable of striking early.

The Cowboys’ backup quarterback, Cooper Rush, has shown flashes of competence in recent games but lacks consistency compared to Burrow. Dallas’ offensive success will likely hinge on its passing game, as it faces a Bengals defense ranked fourth-worst by DVOA.

Key Matchups: Chase vs. Lamb

Both teams feature premier wide receivers in Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb, and both are expected to have big performances.

  • Ja’Marr Chase: Chase has been Burrow’s go-to target all season and is primed for another explosive outing against a Cowboys secondary lacking a shutdown corner.
  • CeeDee Lamb: Lamb faces a similarly favorable matchup against a Bengals defense ranked 29th against the pass. With Lamb’s heavy target share, he is a strong candidate to surpass 70 yards.

Prop Pick:

  • Ja’Marr Chase Alternate Receiving Yards, 90+
  • CeeDee Lamb Alternate Receiving Yards, 70+
    (+285, FanDuel)

Both receivers should thrive in a game dominated by passing offenses, making this combination an attractive play.

Best Bets for Bengals vs. Cowboys

1. Bengals First-Half Team Total Over 13.5 Points (-118 at DraftKings)

Cincinnati’s offense has consistently been its best defense. With Burrow at the helm, the Bengals excel in the red zone (71% touchdown rate, second-best in the league). Given Dallas’ struggles in first halves and red-zone defense, the Bengals are a strong bet to exceed 13.5 first-half points.

2. Total Over 49.5 Points

With two pass-heavy offenses and leaky defenses, this matchup has all the makings of a shootout. Both teams rank in the top five in pass-play percentage (Bengals: 64.3%, Cowboys: 64.9%), ensuring plenty of opportunities for scoring.

Prediction

While both offenses are capable of lighting up the scoreboard, the Bengals’ edge in quarterback play and red-zone efficiency could prove decisive. Expect Joe Burrow to lead Cincinnati to a fast start, while Cooper Rush keeps Dallas competitive late.

Final Score Prediction: Bengals 31, Cowboys 27