Week 2 TNF: Bills-Dolphins Preview, Props, Prediction

The Buffalo Bills have had the Miami Dolphins’ number recently, racking up four consecutive wins in their head-to-head matchups. As we head into Week 2 of Thursday Night Football, Buffalo is eyeing its fifth straight victory over Miami. Yet, the betting odds suggest a potential shift in power, as the Dolphins opened as slight favorites, with the line moving further in their favor. Could this be the game Miami finally breaks the Bills’ streak?

Despite Buffalo’s recent dominance, it’s worth noting that Miami came dangerously close to dethroning them during last year’s Week 18 showdown. A win in that game would have handed the Dolphins their first division title since 2008, but Buffalo eked out a 21-14 win, securing their place as AFC East kings for yet another year. Now, with momentum on their side, can the Dolphins flip the script?

Odds and Trends: Is the Tide Turning?

The early betting lines had Miami as slight -1 favorites, but public backing has swung the line even more in their direction. Now, the Dolphins sit as consensus 2.5-point favorites heading into this pivotal divisional clash. Recent history between these two teams shows that we should expect another tightly contested affair, with three of their last five games decided by three points or less. The Dolphins’ last victory came in a nail-biter back in September 2022, when they edged out Buffalo 21-19.

Betting Action:

• Spread: 68% of the handle supports Miami, with just 32% backing Buffalo.
• Moneyline: 70% of the handle and 66% of the bets favor Miami outright.
• At BetRivers, the action is even more skewed towards Miami, with 76% of the money and 70% of the tickets supporting the Dolphins’ spread. The moneyline is also tilting Miami’s way, with 56% of the handle and 52% of the tickets backing the Dolphins.

Total Points: It seems the betting public is bracing for a shootout, with 66% of the handle and 75% of tickets expecting the game to go over the point total. Given these teams’ recent history of high-scoring battles, this makes sense.

Historically, backing the public in early-season games has been profitable. Last year, public bettors went 13-3 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1 and enjoyed a winning record in five of the first seven weeks. However, bettors hit a rough patch this past Sunday, going 5-7-1 ATS.

Tyreek Hill Anytime TD (-120 at DraftKings)

Tyreek Hill is always a threat in the end zone, and with Miami’s backfield thinned due to injuries, the Dolphins may rely on their star receiver even more. Hill kicked off last season in spectacular form, finding the end zone four times in his first three games. He also has a history of success against Buffalo, notching one touchdown in two matchups last year. Given his playmaking ability and the Dolphins’ current lineup, this prop looks enticing.

Tyreek Hill Over 6.5 Receptions (-138 at FanDuel)

With Miami’s offense starting slow last week, Hill still managed to catch seven passes. With injuries to running backs Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane, expect Miami to lean even more heavily on its passing game. Hill is likely to be the focal point, and his over/under for receptions seems like a solid bet. In last year’s two contests against Buffalo, he had three receptions in one game and seven in another.

Key Stats: Josh Allen’s Mastery Over the Dolphins

Josh Allen has been a nightmare for the Dolphins since he entered the NFL. Since being drafted in 2018, Allen has faced Miami 12 times, winning 11 of those encounters. The Bills quarterback has often lit up the scoreboard, putting up over 400 yards of offense and 35+ points in several games against Miami. Most notably, Allen has thrown 36 touchdown passes against the Dolphins, the most by any quarterback against a single team during that span.

Last season in Week 4, Allen was unstoppable against Miami, completing 84% of his passes for 320 yards and four touchdowns, and even adding a rushing score. He followed that up with another stellar performance in Week 18, throwing for 359 yards and two touchdowns—though two interceptions made the game closer than expected.

Despite Allen’s incredible form against Miami, Buffalo’s offense will look slightly different this week, following the offseason trade of Stefon Diggs to Houston. Diggs had been Allen’s go-to target, but even without him, Allen spread the ball effectively last week, completing 78% of his passes to nine different receivers.

Injury Report: Who’s In, Who’s Out?

Both teams are dealing with key injuries heading into this game, which could heavily influence the outcome.

Miami:

• Raheem Mostert (out, chest injury)
• Devon Achane (questionable, ankle injury)
• Malik Washington, Jaelan Phillips, Jalen Ramsey, and Liam Eichenberg are also questionable.

Achane, who rushed for 101 yards and two touchdowns against Buffalo in Week 4 last season, may be a game-time decision.

Buffalo:

• Javon Solomon (doubtful, oblique)
• Dawuane Smoot (out, toe injury)
• Taron Jackson (out, forearm injury)

These injuries, particularly on Buffalo’s defensive line, could open up opportunities for Miami’s offense to exploit, especially in the passing game.

Prediction: Can Miami Finally Overcome Allen?

Josh Allen has undeniably been a thorn in the Dolphins’ side, but Miami’s defense has shown it can keep him in check. In their last matchup, Miami’s defense sacked Allen five times and forced two crucial interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. If the Dolphins’ defense can apply similar pressure and limit Allen’s big plays, they’ll have a strong chance of ending their losing streak.

That said, Allen’s historical dominance can’t be overlooked. His ability to create magic in high-pressure moments has made him a perennial Dolphins killer. The deciding factor will likely be Miami’s ability to capitalize on Buffalo’s offensive adjustments and the Dolphins’ capacity to rise to the occasion in a big primetime game.

Prediction: Dolphins 31, Bills 28